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Geoscience Communication An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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GC | Articles | Volume 2, issue 2
Geosci. Commun., 2, 101–116, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Geosci. Commun., 2, 101–116, 2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 19 Jul 2019

Research article | 19 Jul 2019

The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

Elisabeth M. Stephens et al.

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Cited articles

BBC Media Centre: BBC Weather launches a new look, available at: (last access: April 2019), 2018. 
Broad, K., Leiserowitz, A., Weinkle, J., and Steketee, M.: Misinterpretations of the “Cone of Uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 Hurricane Season, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 651–668,, 2007. 
Eosco, G.: Pictures may tell it all: The use of draw-and-tell methodology to understand the role of uncertainty in individuals' hurricane information seeking processes, Fifth Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, Second AMS Conference on International Cooperation in the Earth System Sciences and Services, available at: (last access: April 2019), 2010. 
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., Van Den Broek, E., Fasolo, B., and Katsikopoulos, K. V.: “A 30 % chance of rain tomorrow”: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?, Risk Anal., 25, 623–629,, 2005. 
Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., Kurz-Milcke, E., Schwartz, L. M., and Woloshin, S.: Helping doctors and patients make sense of health statistics, Psychol. Sci. Publ. Int., 8, 53–96,, 2007. 
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
The UK Met Office ran an online game to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in their online forecasts and to widen engagement in probabilistic weather forecasting. The game used a randomized design to test different methods of presenting uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being lucky or unlucky when the most likely scenario did not occur. Over 8000 people played the game; we found players made better decisions when provided with forecast uncertainty.
The UK Met Office ran an online game to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty...
Final-revised paper