Articles | Volume 2, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making
Elisabeth M. Stephens
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science,
University of Reading, Whiteknights, RG6 6AB, UK
David J. Spiegelhalter
Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences,
Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WB, UK
Ken Mylne
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Mark Harrison
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
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3,265 | 1,331 | 163 | 4,759 | 461 | 158 | 188 |
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- EndNote: 188
Total article views: 3,867 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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2,744 | 978 | 145 | 3,867 | 260 | 142 | 165 |
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- Total: 3,867
- Supplement: 260
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Total article views: 892 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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521 | 353 | 18 | 892 | 201 | 16 | 23 |
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- Supplement: 201
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Total article views: 4,759 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 4,168 with geography defined
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Total article views: 3,867 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,473 with geography defined
and 394 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 892 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
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and 197 with unknown origin.
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings A. Taylor et al. 10.1111/risa.14222
- Bridging the gap between ensemble forecasting and end-user needs for decision-making on high-impact events M. Ponzano et al. 10.5194/asr-22-39-2025
- Recommendations for increasing the reach and effectiveness of heat risk education and warning messaging K. VanderMolen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103288
- A decision‐making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty C. Möhrlen et al. 10.1002/met.2077
- Fully integrating probabilistic flood forecasts into the decision-making process across southern Quebec, Canada: some factors to consider V. Jean et al. 10.1080/07011784.2023.2238696
- Development of forecast information for institutional decision-makers: landslides in India and cyclones in Mozambique M. Budimir et al. 10.5194/gc-5-151-2022
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight 10.1098/rsta.2024.0293
- Use and perception of weather forecast information across Europe A. Sivle et al. 10.1002/met.2053
- Perceptions, Uses, and Interpretations of Uncertainty in Current Weather Forecasts by Spanish Undergraduate Students I. Gómez et al. 10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0048.1
- Visual displays for communicating scientific uncertainty in influenza forecasts Y. Yang et al. 10.3389/fcomm.2023.1232156
- Uncertainty in three dimensions: the challenges of communicating probabilistic flood forecast maps V. Jean et al. 10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023
- A user-centred design framework for disaster risk visualisation A. Twomlow et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103067
- Editorial: Geoscience communication – planning to make it publishable J. Hillier et al. 10.5194/gc-4-493-2021
- Identifying community values related to heat: recommendations for forecast and health risk communication K. Lambrecht et al. 10.5194/gc-4-517-2021
- Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: Best practice for linking models to policymaking E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.08.003
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings A. Taylor et al. 10.1111/risa.14222
- Bridging the gap between ensemble forecasting and end-user needs for decision-making on high-impact events M. Ponzano et al. 10.5194/asr-22-39-2025
- Recommendations for increasing the reach and effectiveness of heat risk education and warning messaging K. VanderMolen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103288
- A decision‐making experiment under wind power forecast uncertainty C. Möhrlen et al. 10.1002/met.2077
- Fully integrating probabilistic flood forecasts into the decision-making process across southern Quebec, Canada: some factors to consider V. Jean et al. 10.1080/07011784.2023.2238696
- Development of forecast information for institutional decision-makers: landslides in India and cyclones in Mozambique M. Budimir et al. 10.5194/gc-5-151-2022
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight 10.1098/rsta.2024.0293
- Use and perception of weather forecast information across Europe A. Sivle et al. 10.1002/met.2053
- Perceptions, Uses, and Interpretations of Uncertainty in Current Weather Forecasts by Spanish Undergraduate Students I. Gómez et al. 10.1175/WCAS-D-20-0048.1
- Visual displays for communicating scientific uncertainty in influenza forecasts Y. Yang et al. 10.3389/fcomm.2023.1232156
- Uncertainty in three dimensions: the challenges of communicating probabilistic flood forecast maps V. Jean et al. 10.5194/hess-27-3351-2023
- A user-centred design framework for disaster risk visualisation A. Twomlow et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103067
- Editorial: Geoscience communication – planning to make it publishable J. Hillier et al. 10.5194/gc-4-493-2021
- Identifying community values related to heat: recommendations for forecast and health risk communication K. Lambrecht et al. 10.5194/gc-4-517-2021
- Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts: Best practice for linking models to policymaking E. Coughlan de Perez et al. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.08.003
Latest update: 16 Aug 2025
Short summary
The UK Met Office ran an online game to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in their online forecasts and to widen engagement in probabilistic weather forecasting. The game used a randomized design to test different methods of presenting uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being
luckyor
unluckywhen the most likely scenario did not occur. Over 8000 people played the game; we found players made better decisions when provided with forecast uncertainty.
The UK Met Office ran an online game to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty...
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