The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Spiegelhalter, David J.; Mylne, Ken; Harrison, Mark

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019

Articles | Volume 2, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 2, issue 2

Research article

|

19 Jul 2019

Research article |

| 19 Jul 2019

The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making

Elisabeth M. Stephens, David J. Spiegelhalter, Ken Mylne, and Mark Harrison

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Final revised paper (published on 19 Jul 2019)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 10 Dec 2018)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Accept with minor revisions', Christopher Skinner, 10 Jan 2019
- AC1: 'Response to C Skinner', Liz Stephens, 25 Mar 2019
RC2: 'A review by Rolf Hut of The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making By Elisabeth M. Stephens, David J. Spiegelhalter, Ken Mylne, and Mark Harrison.', Rolf Hut, 14 Jan 2019
- RC3: 'A review by Rolf Hut of The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making By Elisabeth M. Stephens, David J. Spiegelhalter, Ken Mylne, and Mark Harrison. addition', Rolf Hut, 14 Jan 2019
  - AC2: 'Response to R Hut', Liz Stephens, 25 Mar 2019
SC1: 'Missing reference', David Schultz, 25 Jan 2019
- AC3: 'Response to D Schultz', Liz Stephens, 25 Mar 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (25 Mar 2019) by Sam Illingworth

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Mar 2019) by Jon Tennant (deceased) (Executive editor)

AR by Liz Stephens on behalf of the Authors (03 Apr 2019) Author's response Manuscript

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Short summary

The UK Met Office ran an online game to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in their online forecasts and to widen engagement in probabilistic weather forecasting. The game used a randomized design to test different methods of presenting uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being lucky or unlucky when the most likely scenario did not occur. Over 8000 people played the game; we found players made better decisions when provided with forecast uncertainty.