Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
Geosci. Commun., 1, 35–57, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
Geosci. Commun., 1, 35–57, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
Research article
06 Dec 2018
Research article | 06 Dec 2018

Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity

Jessica L. Neumann et al.

Related authors

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England
Louise Arnal, Liz Anspoks, Susan Manson, Jessica Neumann, Tim Norton, Elisabeth Stephens, Louise Wolfenden, and Hannah Louise Cloke
Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?
Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, and Florian Pappenberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018
Short summary

Related subject area

Geoscience education
Virtual field trips utilizing virtual outcrop: construction, delivery and implications for the future
Jessica H. Pugsley, John A. Howell, Adrian Hartley, Simon J. Buckley, Rachel Brackenridge, Nicholas Schofield, Gail Maxwell, Magda Chmielewska, Kari Ringdal, Nicole Naumann, and Joris Vanbiervliet
Geosci. Commun., 5, 227–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-227-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-227-2022, 2022
Short summary
GC Insights: Geoscience students' experience of writing academic poetry as an aid to their science education
Alice Wardle and Sam Illingworth
Geosci. Commun., 5, 221–225, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-221-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-221-2022, 2022
Short summary
The imaginary eruption – volcanic activity through kids' eyes
Micol Todesco, Emanuela Ercolani, Flaminia Brasini, Delia Modonesi, Vera Pessina, Rosella Nave, and Romano Camassi
Geosci. Commun., 5, 205–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-205-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-205-2022, 2022
Short summary
A physical concept in the press: the case of the jet stream
Xavier Fonseca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, José A. Cortes-Vazquez, and Antonio Vaamonde
Geosci. Commun., 5, 177–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-177-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-177-2022, 2022
Short summary
W.A.T.E.R. – a structured approach for training on advanced measurement and experimental research
Margaret Chen, Rui Aleixo, Massimo Guerrero, and Rui Ferreira
Geosci. Commun., 5, 143–150, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-143-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-143-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913–922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035, 2014. 
Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016. 
Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H., and Pappenberger, F.: An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1715–1729, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1, 2017. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018, 2018. 
Arribas, A., Glover, M., Maidens, A., Peterson, K., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Graham, R., Fereday, D., Camp, J., Scaife, A. A., Xavier, P., McLean, P., and Colman, A.: The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting, Mon. Weather. Rev., 139, 1891–1910, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3615.1, 2010. 
Download
Short summary
Seasonal hydrological forecasts (SHF) can predict floods, droughts, and water use in the coming months, but little is known about how SHF are used for decision-making. We asked 11 water sector participants what decisions they would make when faced with a possible flood event in 6 weeks' time. Flood forecasters and groundwater hydrologists responded to the flood risk more than water supply managers. SHF need to be tailored for use and communicated more clearly if they are to aid decision-making.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint