Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-1-35-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Dec 2018
Research article |
| 06 Dec 2018
| 06 Dec 2018
Can seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? A decision-making activity
Jessica L. Neumann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Louise Arnal
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECWMF), Reading, UK
Rebecca E. Emerton
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECWMF), Reading, UK
Helen Griffith
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Stuart Hyslop
Environment Agency, Kings Meadow
House, Reading, UK
Sofia Theofanidi
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Hannah L. Cloke
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Meteorology, University of
Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala,
Sweden
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fuzzy Postprocessing to Advance the Quality of Continental Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts for River Basin Management H. Macian-Sorribes et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0266.1
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12864
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12895
- Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques M. Tanguy et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025
- Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards F. Pappenberger et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021
- Identifying community values related to heat: recommendations for forecast and health risk communication K. Lambrecht et al. 10.5194/gc-4-517-2021
- Editorial: Geoscience communication – planning to make it publishable J. Hillier et al. 10.5194/gc-4-493-2021
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Recommendations for increasing the reach and effectiveness of heat risk education and warning messaging K. VanderMolen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103288
- What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? R. Emerton et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
- Making a Water Data System Responsive to Information Needs of Decision Makers A. Cantor et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.761444
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12691
- UK National Report 2015–2019 10.1080/00087041.2019.1642005
- Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning H. Weierbach et al. 10.3390/w14071032
- “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
- airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R O. Delaigue et al. 10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Fuzzy Postprocessing to Advance the Quality of Continental Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts for River Basin Management H. Macian-Sorribes et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0266.1
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12864
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12895
- Optimising ensemble streamflow predictions with bias correction and data assimilation techniques M. Tanguy et al. 10.5194/hess-29-1587-2025
- Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards F. Pappenberger et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021
- Identifying community values related to heat: recommendations for forecast and health risk communication K. Lambrecht et al. 10.5194/gc-4-517-2021
- Editorial: Geoscience communication – planning to make it publishable J. Hillier et al. 10.5194/gc-4-493-2021
- Conditioning ensemble streamflow prediction with the North Atlantic Oscillation improves skill at longer lead times S. Donegan et al. 10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021
- Recommendations for increasing the reach and effectiveness of heat risk education and warning messaging K. VanderMolen et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103288
- What is the most useful approach for forecasting hydrological extremes during El Niño? R. Emerton et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab114e
- Making a Water Data System Responsive to Information Needs of Decision Makers A. Cantor et al. 10.3389/fclim.2021.761444
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12691
- UK National Report 2015–2019 10.1080/00087041.2019.1642005
- Stream Temperature Predictions for River Basin Management in the Pacific Northwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions Using Machine Learning H. Weierbach et al. 10.3390/w14071032
- “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England L. Arnal et al. 10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
- airGRteaching: an open-source tool for teaching hydrological modeling with R O. Delaigue et al. 10.5194/hess-27-3293-2023
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 May 2025
Short summary
Seasonal hydrological forecasts (SHF) can predict floods, droughts, and water use in the coming months, but little is known about how SHF are used for decision-making. We asked 11 water sector participants what decisions they would make when faced with a possible flood event in 6 weeks' time. Flood forecasters and groundwater hydrologists responded to the flood risk more than water supply managers. SHF need to be tailored for use and communicated more clearly if they are to aid decision-making.
Seasonal hydrological forecasts (SHF) can predict floods, droughts, and water use in the coming...
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Final-revised paper
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