Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-97-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-97-2023
Research article
 | 
06 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 06 Sep 2023

Understanding representations of uncertainty, an eye-tracking study – Part 1: The effect of anchoring

Kelsey J. Mulder, Louis Williams, Matthew Lickiss, Alison Black, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Rachel McCloy, and Eugene McSorley

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Understanding representations of uncertainty, an eye-tracking study – Part 2: The effect of expertise
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Geosci. Commun., 6, 111–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023, 2023
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Subject: Geoscience engagement | Keyword: Public communication of science
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Cited articles

Ash, K. D., Schumann III, R. L., and Bowser, G. C.: Tornado warning trade-offs: Evaluating choices for visually communicating risk, Weather Clim. Soc., 6, 104–118, 2014. 
Baguley, T.: Serious stats: A guide to advanced statistics for the behavioural sciences, Palgrave Macmillan, ISBN: 9780230577176, 2012. 
Balcombe, K., Fraser, I., and McSorley, E.: Visual attention and attribute attendance in multi-attribute choice experiments, J. Appl. Economet., 30, 447–467, 2015. 
Bosetti, V., Weber, E., Berger, L., Budescu, D. V., Liu, N., and Tavoni, M.: COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 185–190, 2017. 
Broad, K., Leiserowitz, A., Weinkle, J., and Steketee, M.: Misinterpretations of the “cone of uncertainty” in Florida during the 2004 hurricane season, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 651–668, 2007. 
Short summary
It is vital that uncertainty in environmental forecasting is graphically presented to enable people to use and interpret it correctly. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. This suggests that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully so that they help people to extract important information more easily.
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