Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-97-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-97-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 06 Sep 2023
| 06 Sep 2023
Understanding representations of uncertainty, an eye-tracking study – Part 1: The effect of anchoring
Kelsey J. Mulder
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Brian Hoskins Building, Department of Meteorology, University of
Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
currently at: Liberty Specialty Markets, 20 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 3AW, UK
Louis Williams
Department of Psychology, University of Reading, Harry Pitt Building, Earley Gate, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK
Matthew Lickiss
Department of Typography and Graphic Communication, University of
Reading, Reading, RG6 7BE, UK
Alison Black
Department of Typography and Graphic Communication, University of
Reading, Reading, RG6 7BE, UK
Andrew Charlton-Perez
Brian Hoskins Building, Department of Meteorology, University of
Reading, Earley Gate, P.O. Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Rachel McCloy
Department of Psychology, University of Reading, Harry Pitt Building, Earley Gate, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK
Eugene McSorley
Department of Psychology, University of Reading, Harry Pitt Building, Earley Gate, Whiteknights Road, Reading, RG6 6AL, UK
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Louis Williams, Kelsey J. Mulder, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Matthew Lickiss, Alison Black, Rachel McCloy, Eugene McSorley, and Joe Young
Geosci. Commun., 6, 111–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023, 2023
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When constructing graphical environmental forecasts involving uncertainty, it is important to consider the background and expertise of end-users. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by prior expertise and the graphical construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. We suggest that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully, bearing these factors in mind.
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When constructing graphical environmental forecasts involving uncertainty, it is important to consider the background and expertise of end-users. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by prior expertise and the graphical construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. We suggest that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully, bearing these factors in mind.
Zachary D. Lawrence, Marta Abalos, Blanca Ayarzagüena, David Barriopedro, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Alvaro de la Cámara, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Javier García-Serrano, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Neil P. Hindley, Liwei Jia, Martin Jucker, Alexey Y. Karpechko, Hera Kim, Andrea L. Lang, Simon H. Lee, Pu Lin, Marisol Osman, Froila M. Palmeiro, Judith Perlwitz, Inna Polichtchouk, Jadwiga H. Richter, Chen Schwartz, Seok-Woo Son, Irina Statnaia, Masakazu Taguchi, Nicholas L. Tyrrell, Corwin J. Wright, and Rachel W.-Y. Wu
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 977–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-977-2022, 2022
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Forecast models that are used to predict weather often struggle to represent the Earth’s stratosphere. This may impact their ability to predict surface weather weeks in advance, on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. We use data from many S2S forecast systems to characterize and compare the stratospheric biases present in such forecast models. These models have many similar stratospheric biases, but they tend to be worse in systems with low model tops located within the stratosphere.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Adam A. Scaife, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun-Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok-Woo Son, and David W. J. Thompson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2601–2623, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022, 2022
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Great progress has been made in computer modelling and simulation of the whole climate system, including the stratosphere. Since the late 20th century we also gained a much clearer understanding of how the stratosphere interacts with the lower atmosphere. The latest generation of numerical prediction systems now explicitly represents the stratosphere and its interaction with surface climate, and here we review its role in long-range predictions and projections from weeks to decades ahead.
Hannah C. Bloomfield, David J. Brayshaw, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, and Andrew Charlton-Perez
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2259–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021, 2021
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Energy systems are becoming more exposed to weather as more renewable generation is built. This means access to high-quality weather forecasts is becoming more important. This paper showcases past forecasts of electricity demand and wind power and solar power generation across 28 European countries. The timescale of interest is from 5 d out to 1 month ahead. This paper highlights the recent improvements in forecast skill and hopes to promote collaboration in the energy–meteorology community.
Graeme Marlton, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Giles Harrison, Inna Polichtchouk, Alain Hauchecorne, Philippe Keckhut, Robin Wing, Thierry Leblanc, and Wolfgang Steinbrecht
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6079–6092, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6079-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6079-2021, 2021
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A network of Rayleigh lidars have been used to infer the upper-stratosphere temperature bias in ECMWF ERA-5 and ERA-Interim reanalyses during 1990–2017. Results show that ERA-Interim exhibits a cold bias of −3 to −4 K between 10 and 1 hPa. Comparisons with ERA-5 found a smaller bias of 1 K which varies between cold and warm between 10 and 3 hPa, indicating a good thermal representation of the atmosphere to 3 hPa. These biases must be accounted for in stratospheric studies using these reanalyses.
Graeme Marlton, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Giles Harrison, Inna Polichtchouk, Alain Hauchecorne, Philippe Keckhut, and Robin Wing
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-254, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-254, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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A network of Rayleigh lidars have been used to infer the middle atmosphere temperature bias in ECMWF ERA-5 and ERA-interim reanalyses during 1990–2017. Results show that ERA-interim exhibits a cold bias of −3 to −4 K between 10 and 1 hPa. Comparisons with ERA-5 found a smaller bias of 1 K which varies between cold and warm between 10 and 3 hPa, indicating a good thermal representation of the atmosphere to 3 hPa. These biases must be accounted for in stratospheric studies using these reanalyses.
Related subject area
Subject: Geoscience engagement | Keyword: Public communication of science
A spectrum of geoscience communication: from dissemination to participation
Rocks Really Rock: Generating positive impacts in middle and high school students’ attitudes toward geology via Web Google-Earth electronic field trips
Understanding representations of uncertainty, an eye-tracking study – Part 2: The effect of expertise
GC Insights: Nature stripes for raising engagement with biodiversity loss
Exploring TikTok as a promising platform for geoscience communication
How to get your message across: designing an impactful knowledge transfer plan in a European project
Magnetic to the Core – communicating palaeomagnetism with hands-on activities
Communicating uncertainties in spatial predictions of grain micronutrient concentration
The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making
The takeover of science communication: how science lost its leading role in the public discourse on carbon capture and storage research in daily newspapers in Germany
Building bridges between experts and the public: a comparison of two-way communication formats for flooding and air pollution risk
Sam Illingworth
Geosci. Commun., 6, 131–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-131-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-131-2023, 2023
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In this article, I explore the various ways the geosciences can be communicated to a wider audience. I focus on creative methods that range from sharing information to involving the public in the research process. By using examples from my own work and the wider literature, I demonstrate how these approaches can engage diverse communities and promote greater recognition for geoscience communication.
Carolina Ortiz-Guerrero and Jamie Loizzo
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When constructing graphical environmental forecasts involving uncertainty, it is important to consider the background and expertise of end-users. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by prior expertise and the graphical construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. We suggest that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully, bearing these factors in mind.
Miles Richardson
Geosci. Commun., 6, 11–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-11-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-11-2023, 2023
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There has also been a stark loss of wildlife since 1970, yet climate change receives far greater attention. The
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nature stripesshow how the loss of wildlife and biodiversity can also be presented in a similar way for positive effects.
Emily E. Zawacki, Wendy Bohon, Scott Johnson, and Donna J. Charlevoix
Geosci. Commun., 5, 363–380, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-363-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-363-2022, 2022
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Sara Pasqualetto, Luisa Cristini, and Thomas Jung
Geosci. Commun., 5, 87–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-87-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-87-2022, 2022
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Annique van der Boon, Andrew J. Biggin, Greig A. Paterson, and Janine L. Kavanagh
Geosci. Commun., 5, 55–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-55-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-55-2022, 2022
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Christopher Chagumaira, Joseph G. Chimungu, Dawd Gashu, Patson C. Nalivata, Martin R. Broadley, Alice E. Milne, and R. Murray Lark
Geosci. Commun., 4, 245–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-245-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-245-2021, 2021
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Our study is concerned with how the uncertainty in spatial information about environmental variables can be communicated to stakeholders who must use this information to make decisions. We tested five methods for communicating the uncertainty in spatial predictions by eliciting the opinions of end-users about the usefulness of the methods. End-users preferred methods based on the probability that concentrations are below or above a nutritionally significant threshold.
Elisabeth M. Stephens, David J. Spiegelhalter, Ken Mylne, and Mark Harrison
Geosci. Commun., 2, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-101-2019, 2019
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The UK Met Office ran an online game to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in their online forecasts and to widen engagement in probabilistic weather forecasting. The game used a randomized design to test different methods of presenting uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being
luckyor
unluckywhen the most likely scenario did not occur. Over 8000 people played the game; we found players made better decisions when provided with forecast uncertainty.
Simon Schneider
Geosci. Commun., 2, 69–82, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-69-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-69-2019, 2019
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CCS media coverage in Germany was dominated by other stakeholders than science itself. If science will remain a proactive element of science communication, new approaches for future science PR have be deduced. Among these is a more differentiated understanding of target audiences and regional concerns. Furthermore, science communication has to gain a better understanding of sociocultural contexts to become more effective and successful.
Maria Loroño-Leturiondo, Paul O'Hare, Simon J. Cook, Stephen R. Hoon, and Sam Illingworth
Geosci. Commun., 2, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-39-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-39-2019, 2019
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Urban centres worldwide are adversely affected by flooding and air pollution. Effective communication between experts and citizens is key to understanding and limiting the impact of these hazards, as citizens have valuable knowledge based on their day-to-day experiences. In this study, we compare five different communication formats that can facilitate the required dialogue and explore the best ways and optimal circumstances in which these can be implemented.
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Short summary
It is vital that uncertainty in environmental forecasting is graphically presented to enable people to use and interpret it correctly. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. This suggests that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully so that they help people to extract important information more easily.
It is vital that uncertainty in environmental forecasting is graphically presented to enable...
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