Articles | Volume 6, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-6-111-2023
Research article
 | 
06 Sep 2023
Research article |  | 06 Sep 2023

Understanding representations of uncertainty, an eye-tracking study – Part 2: The effect of expertise

Louis Williams, Kelsey J. Mulder, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Matthew Lickiss, Alison Black, Rachel McCloy, Eugene McSorley, and Joe Young

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Subject: Geoscience engagement | Keyword: Public communication of science
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Cited articles

Ash, K. D., Schumann III, R. L., and Bowser, G. C.: Tornado warning trade-offs: Evaluating choices for visually communicating risk, Weather Clim. Soc., 6, 104–118, 2014. 
Antes, J.: The time course of picture viewing, J. Exp. Psychol., 103, 62–70, https://doi.org/10.1037/h0036799, 1974. 
Baguley, T.: Serious stats: A guide to advanced statistics for the behavioural sciences, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-36355-7, 2012. 
Bosetti, V., Weber, E., Berger, L., Budescu, D. V., Liu, N., and Tavoni, M.: COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 185–190, 2017. 
Bostrom, A., Morss, R. E., Lazo, J. K., Demuth, J. L., Lazrus, H., and Hudson, R.: A Mental Models Study of Hurricane Forecast and Warning Production, Communication, and Decision-Making, Weather Clim. Soc., 8, 111–129, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0033.1, 2016. 
Short summary
When constructing graphical environmental forecasts involving uncertainty, it is important to consider the background and expertise of end-users. Using novel eye-tracking methods, we show that where people look and the decisions they make are both strongly influenced by prior expertise and the graphical construction of forecast representations common in presentations of environmental data. We suggest that forecasters should construct their presentations carefully, bearing these factors in mind.
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