Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-245-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-245-2021
Research article
 | 
29 Apr 2021
Research article |  | 29 Apr 2021

Communicating uncertainties in spatial predictions of grain micronutrient concentration

Christopher Chagumaira, Joseph G. Chimungu, Dawd Gashu, Patson C. Nalivata, Martin R. Broadley, Alice E. Milne, and R. Murray Lark

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Cited articles

AfSIS: New cropland and rural settlement maps of Africa, available at: http://africasoils.net/2015/06/07/new-cropland-and-rural-settlement-maps-of-africa (last access: 25 April 2020), 2015 
Belay, A., Joy, E., Chagumaira, C., Zerfu, D., Ander, E. L., Young, S. D., Bailey, E. H., Lark, R. M., Broadley, M. R., and Gashu, D.: Selenium Deficiency Is Widespread and Spatially Dependent in Ethiopia, Nutrients, 12, 1565, https://doi.org/10.3390/nu12061565, 2020. 
Beven, K., Lamb, R., Leedal, D., and Hunter, N.: Communicating uncertainty in flood inundation mapping: a case study, Int. J. River Basin Manage., 13, 285–295, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.917318, 2015. 
Broadley, M. R., Alcock, J., Alford, J., Cartwright, P., Foot, I., Fairweather-Tait, S. J., Hart, D. J., Hurst, R., Knott, P., McGrath, S. P., Meacham, M. C., Norman, K., Mowat, H., Scott, P., Stroud, J. L., Tovey, M., Tucker, M., White, P. J., Young, S. D., and Zhao, F. J.: Selenium biofortification of high-yielding winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) by liquid or granular Se fertilisation, Plant Soil, 332, 5–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-009-0234-4, 2010. 
Budescu, D. V., Broomell, S. B., and Han, P.: Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Psychol. Sci., 20, 299–308, 2009. 
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Our study is concerned with how the uncertainty in spatial information about environmental variables can be communicated to stakeholders who must use this information to make decisions. We tested five methods for communicating the uncertainty in spatial predictions by eliciting the opinions of end-users about the usefulness of the methods. End-users preferred methods based on the probability that concentrations are below or above a nutritionally significant threshold.
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