Articles | Volume 4, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-245-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-245-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
29 Apr 2021
Research article |
| 29 Apr 2021
| 29 Apr 2021
Communicating uncertainties in spatial predictions of grain micronutrient concentration
Christopher Chagumaira
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Future Food Beacon of Excellence and School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, UK
Sustainable Agriculture Sciences Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
Crop and Soil Sciences Department, Bunda College, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, P.O. Box 219, Lilongwe, Malawi
Joseph G. Chimungu
Crop and Soil Sciences Department, Bunda College, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, P.O. Box 219, Lilongwe, Malawi
Dawd Gashu
Center for Food Science and Nutrition, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Patson C. Nalivata
Crop and Soil Sciences Department, Bunda College, Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, P.O. Box 219, Lilongwe, Malawi
Martin R. Broadley
Future Food Beacon of Excellence and School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, UK
Alice E. Milne
Sustainable Agriculture Sciences Department, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK
R. Murray Lark
Future Food Beacon of Excellence and School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, UK
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Our study is concerned with how uncertainty in spatial information about environmental variables can be communicated to stakeholders to make decisions about sampling whilst considering the trade-off between sample effort and reducing uncertainty. We tested four approaches that relate sampling density and uncertainty by eliciting the opinions of end-users. End-users preferred the method not direct link to decision-making. More work is needed to develop and elucidate decision-specific approaches.
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Our study is concerned with how uncertainty in spatial information about environmental variables can be communicated to stakeholders to make decisions about sampling whilst considering the trade-off between sample effort and reducing uncertainty. We tested four approaches that relate sampling density and uncertainty by eliciting the opinions of end-users. End-users preferred the method not direct link to decision-making. More work is needed to develop and elucidate decision-specific approaches.
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Our study examines different quantitative methods to predict concentrations of micronutrients in the soil from field samples. However, we emphasize the concerns of stakeholders, who use such information to make decisions, in this case in relation to the study and management of micronutrient deficiency risk in the human population. We propose a framework to think about these concerns then compare common approaches for digital soil mapping within this framework.
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Short summary
Our study is concerned with how the uncertainty in spatial information about environmental variables can be communicated to stakeholders who must use this information to make decisions. We tested five methods for communicating the uncertainty in spatial predictions by eliciting the opinions of end-users about the usefulness of the methods. End-users preferred methods based on the probability that concentrations are below or above a nutritionally significant threshold.
Our study is concerned with how the uncertainty in spatial information about environmental...
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