Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024
GC Insights
 | Highlight paper
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06 Aug 2024
GC Insights | Highlight paper |  | 06 Aug 2024

GC Insights: Communicating long-term changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain

Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-289', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Apr 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Ed Hawkins, 06 Jun 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-289', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 May 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Ed Hawkins, 06 Jun 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by editor) (13 Jun 2024) by Louise Arnal
AR by Ed Hawkins on behalf of the Authors (23 Jun 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (26 Jun 2024) by Louise Arnal
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (27 Jun 2024) by John K. Hillier (Executive editor)
AR by Ed Hawkins on behalf of the Authors (28 Jun 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Executive editor
This paper creates a visual physically plausible causal chain to communicate long-term changes in local climate risk, using flooding in a UK river basin as an example. This chain places local hazards, such as flooding, within the broader context of global climate change, including factors like global carbon dioxide emissions and temperature changes. It relies exclusively on observations, thereby avoiding the additional uncertainties associated with climate scenarios that might hinder understanding in certain situations. This causal chain idea has the potential to be a powerful communication tool for clearly communicating risks and the contributing factors, engaging with local communities, and addressing common misconceptions like the “Myth of Dry Feet” - a Dutch expression implying that extreme events such as floods only happen elsewhere, and won't happen "here" or "to me". While this chain is created for flood risk in the UK, it has the potential for broader application in various geoscience fields.
Short summary
Climate change can often seem rather remote, especially when the discussion is about global averages which appear to have little relevance to local experiences. But those global changes are already affecting people, even if they do not fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to visually highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
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