Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024
GC Insights
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06 Aug 2024
GC Insights | Highlight paper |  | 06 Aug 2024

GC Insights: Communicating long-term changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain

Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton

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Executive editor
This paper creates a visual physically plausible causal chain to communicate long-term changes in local climate risk, using flooding in a UK river basin as an example. This chain places local hazards, such as flooding, within the broader context of global climate change, including factors like global carbon dioxide emissions and temperature changes. It relies exclusively on observations, thereby avoiding the additional uncertainties associated with climate scenarios that might hinder understanding in certain situations. This causal chain idea has the potential to be a powerful communication tool for clearly communicating risks and the contributing factors, engaging with local communities, and addressing common misconceptions like the “Myth of Dry Feet” - a Dutch expression implying that extreme events such as floods only happen elsewhere, and won't happen "here" or "to me". While this chain is created for flood risk in the UK, it has the potential for broader application in various geoscience fields.
Short summary
Climate change can often seem rather remote, especially when the discussion is about global averages which appear to have little relevance to local experiences. But those global changes are already affecting people, even if they do not fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to visually highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
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