Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-151-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development of forecast information for institutional decision-makers: landslides in India and cyclones in Mozambique
Mirianna Budimir
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Practical Action Consulting, Rugby, CV21 2SD, United Kingdom
Alison Sneddon
Practical Action Consulting, Rugby, CV21 2SD, United Kingdom
Issy Nelder
Practical Action Consulting, Rugby, CV21 2SD, United Kingdom
Sarah Brown
Practical Action Consulting, Rugby, CV21 2SD, United Kingdom
Amy Donovan
Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2
3EN, United Kingdom
Linda Speight
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6UR, United Kingdom
Related authors
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
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Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Mirianna Budimir, Amy Donovan, Sarah Brown, Puja Shakya, Dilip Gautam, Madhab Uprety, Michael Cranston, Alison Sneddon, Paul Smith, and Sumit Dugar
Geosci. Commun., 3, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-49-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-49-2020, 2020
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Early warning systems for natural hazards have the potential to save lives and improve people's resilience to disasters. However, challenges remain in disseminating and communicating more complex warnings with longer lead times to decision makers and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination, and decision-making for early action.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
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Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Amy Donovan, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2771–2790, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022, 2022
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Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Mirianna Budimir, Amy Donovan, Sarah Brown, Puja Shakya, Dilip Gautam, Madhab Uprety, Michael Cranston, Alison Sneddon, Paul Smith, and Sumit Dugar
Geosci. Commun., 3, 49–70, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-49-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-49-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning systems for natural hazards have the potential to save lives and improve people's resilience to disasters. However, challenges remain in disseminating and communicating more complex warnings with longer lead times to decision makers and individuals at risk. Research was undertaken to analyse and understand the current flood early warning system in Nepal, considering available data and forecasts, information flows, early warning dissemination, and decision-making for early action.
Paul J. Smith, Sarah Brown, and Sumit Dugar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 423–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-423-2017, 2017
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Risks from flooding are of global importance. Experience gained in Nepal is presented to demonstrate that empowering the communities impacted by flooding to be active participants in risk mitigation can have significant positive impacts. In part this is achieved through community involvement in the provision of warnings based on observations of river flow upstream. The success of simple, robust methodology for the early provision of such warnings based on predicting future river flows is shown.
Related subject area
Subject: Geoscience engagement | Keyword: Co-creation and co-production
GC Insights: Identifying conditions that sculpted bedforms – human insights to building an effective AI (artificial intelligence)
Rapid collaborative knowledge building via Twitter after significant geohazard events
John K. Hillier, Chris Unsworth, Luke De Clerk, and Sergey Savel'ev
Geosci. Commun., 5, 11–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-11-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-11-2022, 2022
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It is an aspiration to infer flow conditions from bedform morphology (e.g. riverbed ripples) where sedimentary structures preserve the geological past or in inaccessible environments (e.g. Mars). This study was motivated by the idea of better designing an AI (artificial intelligence) algorithm to do this by using lessons from non-AI (i.e. human) abilities, investigated using a geoscience communication activity. A survey and an artificial neural network are used in a successful proof of concept.
Robin Lacassin, Maud Devès, Stephen P. Hicks, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Remy Bossu, Lucile Bruhat, Daryono, Desianto F. Wibisono, Laure Fallou, Eric J. Fielding, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Jamie Gurney, Janine Krippner, Anthony Lomax, Muh. Ma'rufin Sudibyo, Astyka Pamumpuni, Jason R. Patton, Helen Robinson, Mark Tingay, and Sotiris Valkaniotis
Geosci. Commun., 3, 129–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-129-2020, 2020
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Among social media platforms, Twitter is valued by scholars to disseminate scientific information. Using two 2018 geohazard events as examples, we show that collaborative open data sharing and discussion on Twitter promote very rapid building of knowledge. This breaks down the traditional
ivory towerof academia, making science accessible to nonacademics who can follow the discussion. It also presents the opportunity for a new type of scientific approach within global virtual teams.
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Short summary
This paper extracts key learning from two case studies (India and Mozambique), outlining solutions and approaches to challenges in developing forecast products. These lessons and solutions can be used by forecasters and practitioners to support the development of useful, appropriate, and co-designed forecast information for institutional decision-makers to support more effective early action in advance of disasters.
This paper extracts key learning from two case studies (India and Mozambique), outlining...
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