Articles | Volume 7, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-195-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-195-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
GC Insights: Open-access R code for translating the co-occurrence of natural hazards into impact on joint financial risk
Geography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE1 3TU, UK
Adrian Champion
Aon, The Aon Centre, 122 Leadenhall Street, London EC3V 4AN, UK
Tom Perkins
Bank of England, Prudential Regulation Authority, 20 Moorgate, London EC2R 6DA, UK
Freya Garry
Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Hannah Bloomfield
School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK
Related authors
John K. Hillier and Michiel van Meeteren
Geosci. Commun., 7, 35–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-35-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Co-RISK is a workshop-based
toolkitto aid the co-creation of joint projects in various sectors (e.g. insurance, rail, power generation) impacted by natural hazard risks. There is a genuine need to quickly convert the latest insights from environmental research into real-world climate change adaptation strategies, and a gap exists for an accessible (i.e. open access, low tech, zero cost) and practical solution tailored to assist with this.
Shahzad Gani, Louise Arnal, Lucy Beattie, John Hillier, Sam Illingworth, Tiziana Lanza, Solmaz Mohadjer, Karoliina Pulkkinen, Heidi Roop, Iain Stewart, Kirsten von Elverfeldt, and Stephanie Zihms
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3121, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Science communication in geosciences has societal and scientific value but often operates in "shadowlands." This editorial highlights these issues and proposes potential solutions. Our objective is to create a transparent and responsible geoscience communication landscape, fostering scientific progress, the well-being of scientists, and societal benefits.
John K. Hillier, Chris Unsworth, Luke De Clerk, and Sergey Savel'ev
Geosci. Commun., 5, 11–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-11-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-11-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is an aspiration to infer flow conditions from bedform morphology (e.g. riverbed ripples) where sedimentary structures preserve the geological past or in inaccessible environments (e.g. Mars). This study was motivated by the idea of better designing an AI (artificial intelligence) algorithm to do this by using lessons from non-AI (i.e. human) abilities, investigated using a geoscience communication activity. A survey and an artificial neural network are used in a successful proof of concept.
John K. Hillier, Katharine E. Welsh, Mathew Stiller-Reeve, Rebecca K. Priestley, Heidi A. Roop, Tiziana Lanza, and Sam Illingworth
Geosci. Commun., 4, 493–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-493-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this editorial we expand upon the brief advice in the first editorial of Geoscience Communication (Illingworth et al., 2018), illustrating what constitutes robust and publishable work for this journal and elucidating its key elements. Our aim is to help geoscience communicators plan a route to publication and to illustrate how good engagement work that is already being done might be developed into publishable research.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Giulia Sofia, John K. Hillier, and Susan J. Conway
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 721–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The interdisciplinarity of geomorphometry is its greatest strength and one of its major challenges. This special issue showcases exciting developments that are the building blocks for the next step-change in the field. In reading and compiling the contributions we hope that the scientific community will be inspired to seek out collaborations and share ideas across subject-boundaries, between technique-developers and users, enabling us as a community to gather knowledge from our digital landscape
J. K. Hillier, G. Sofia, and S. J. Conway
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 587–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-587-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
How good are measurements of shapes in the landscape? This is not well constrained. We suggest that "synthetic tests" using constructed digital landscapes called synthetic DEMs are a powerful and necessary tool to establish the reliability of these data (e.g. mapped sizes). Thus, the tests have a key, complementary role in determining if conceptual and physics-driven models of processes can be reconciled with morphological observations of reality. A typology of synthetic DEMs is proposed.
John K. Hillier and Michiel van Meeteren
Geosci. Commun., 7, 35–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-35-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Co-RISK is a workshop-based
toolkitto aid the co-creation of joint projects in various sectors (e.g. insurance, rail, power generation) impacted by natural hazard risks. There is a genuine need to quickly convert the latest insights from environmental research into real-world climate change adaptation strategies, and a gap exists for an accessible (i.e. open access, low tech, zero cost) and practical solution tailored to assist with this.
Shahzad Gani, Louise Arnal, Lucy Beattie, John Hillier, Sam Illingworth, Tiziana Lanza, Solmaz Mohadjer, Karoliina Pulkkinen, Heidi Roop, Iain Stewart, Kirsten von Elverfeldt, and Stephanie Zihms
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3121, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Science communication in geosciences has societal and scientific value but often operates in "shadowlands." This editorial highlights these issues and proposes potential solutions. Our objective is to create a transparent and responsible geoscience communication landscape, fostering scientific progress, the well-being of scientists, and societal benefits.
Hannah C. Bloomfield, David J. Brayshaw, Matthew Deakin, and David Greenwood
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2749–2766, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2749-2022, 2022
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There is a global increase in renewable generation to meet carbon targets and reduce the impacts of climate change. Renewable generation and electricity demand depend on the weather. This means there is a need for high-quality weather data for energy system modelling. We present a new European-level, 70-year dataset which has been specifically designed to support the energy sector. We provide hourly, sub-national climate outputs and include the impacts of near-term climate change.
John K. Hillier, Chris Unsworth, Luke De Clerk, and Sergey Savel'ev
Geosci. Commun., 5, 11–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-11-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-11-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is an aspiration to infer flow conditions from bedform morphology (e.g. riverbed ripples) where sedimentary structures preserve the geological past or in inaccessible environments (e.g. Mars). This study was motivated by the idea of better designing an AI (artificial intelligence) algorithm to do this by using lessons from non-AI (i.e. human) abilities, investigated using a geoscience communication activity. A survey and an artificial neural network are used in a successful proof of concept.
John K. Hillier, Katharine E. Welsh, Mathew Stiller-Reeve, Rebecca K. Priestley, Heidi A. Roop, Tiziana Lanza, and Sam Illingworth
Geosci. Commun., 4, 493–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-493-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-493-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this editorial we expand upon the brief advice in the first editorial of Geoscience Communication (Illingworth et al., 2018), illustrating what constitutes robust and publishable work for this journal and elucidating its key elements. Our aim is to help geoscience communicators plan a route to publication and to illustrate how good engagement work that is already being done might be developed into publishable research.
Hannah C. Bloomfield, David J. Brayshaw, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, and Andrew Charlton-Perez
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2259–2274, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2259-2021, 2021
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Energy systems are becoming more exposed to weather as more renewable generation is built. This means access to high-quality weather forecasts is becoming more important. This paper showcases past forecasts of electricity demand and wind power and solar power generation across 28 European countries. The timescale of interest is from 5 d out to 1 month ahead. This paper highlights the recent improvements in forecast skill and hopes to promote collaboration in the energy–meteorology community.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Giulia Sofia, John K. Hillier, and Susan J. Conway
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 721–725, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The interdisciplinarity of geomorphometry is its greatest strength and one of its major challenges. This special issue showcases exciting developments that are the building blocks for the next step-change in the field. In reading and compiling the contributions we hope that the scientific community will be inspired to seek out collaborations and share ideas across subject-boundaries, between technique-developers and users, enabling us as a community to gather knowledge from our digital landscape
J. K. Hillier, G. Sofia, and S. J. Conway
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 587–598, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-587-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
How good are measurements of shapes in the landscape? This is not well constrained. We suggest that "synthetic tests" using constructed digital landscapes called synthetic DEMs are a powerful and necessary tool to establish the reliability of these data (e.g. mapped sizes). Thus, the tests have a key, complementary role in determining if conceptual and physics-driven models of processes can be reconciled with morphological observations of reality. A typology of synthetic DEMs is proposed.
Related subject area
Subject: Geoscience engagement | Keyword: Risk communication
GC Insights: Communicating long-term changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain
Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes
Co-RISK: a tool to co-create impactful university–industry projects for natural hazard risk mitigation
Is there a climate change reporting bias? A case study of English-language news articles, 2017–2022
“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton
Geosci. Commun., 7, 161–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-161-2024, 2024
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Climate change can often seem rather remote, especially when the discussion is about global averages which appear to have little relevance to local experiences. But those global changes are already affecting people, even if they do not fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to visually highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.
Laura Müller and Petra Döll
Geosci. Commun., 7, 121–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-121-2024, 2024
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To be able to adapt to climate change, stakeholders need to be informed about future uncertain climate change hazards. Using freely available output of global hydrological models, we quantified future local changes in water resources and their uncertainty. To communicate these in participatory processes, we propose using "percentile boxes" to support the development of flexible strategies for climate risk management worldwide, involving stakeholders and scientists.
John K. Hillier and Michiel van Meeteren
Geosci. Commun., 7, 35–56, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-35-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-7-35-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Co-RISK is a workshop-based
toolkitto aid the co-creation of joint projects in various sectors (e.g. insurance, rail, power generation) impacted by natural hazard risks. There is a genuine need to quickly convert the latest insights from environmental research into real-world climate change adaptation strategies, and a gap exists for an accessible (i.e. open access, low tech, zero cost) and practical solution tailored to assist with this.
Chloe Brimicombe
Geosci. Commun., 5, 281–287, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-281-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-281-2022, 2022
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Climate change is increasing the risk of weather hazards (i.e. storms and heatwaves). Using open science methods, it is shown that there is a bias in weather hazard reporting in English-language news media. Storms are the weather hazard with the most articles written over the last 5 years. In comparison, wildfires are mentioned most per individual hazard occurrence with climate change. Science and media collaborations could address the bias and improve reporting.
Louise Arnal, Liz Anspoks, Susan Manson, Jessica Neumann, Tim Norton, Elisabeth Stephens, Louise Wolfenden, and Hannah Louise Cloke
Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, 2020
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The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards the use of probabilistic river flood forecasts. By showing the likelihood of future floods, they can allow earlier anticipation. But making decisions on probabilistic information is complex and interviews with EA decision-makers highlight the practical challenges and opportunities of this transition. We make recommendations to support a successful transition for flood early warning in England.
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Short summary
To allow for more effective use of climate science, this work proposes and evaluates an open-access R code that deploys a measure of how natural hazards (e.g. extreme wind and flooding) co-occur, is obtainable from scientific research and is usable in practice without restricted data (climate or risk) being exposed. The approach can be applied to hazards in various sectors (e.g. road, rail and telecommunications).
To allow for more effective use of climate science, this work proposes and evaluates an...
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