Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 19 Aug 2020
| 19 Aug 2020
“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
now at: Coldwater Laboratory, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Alberta, Canada
Liz Anspoks
Incident Management and Resilience, Environment Agency, Warrington, UK
Susan Manson
Flood and Coastal Risk Management Research, Environment Agency, Beverley, UK
Jessica Neumann
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Tim Norton
Incident Management and Resilience, Environment Agency, Addington, UK
Elisabeth Stephens
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Louise Wolfenden
Incident Management and Resilience, Environment Agency, Bristol, UK
Hannah Louise Cloke
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda M. Assoumpta & D. Aja 10.2166/h2oj.2021.094
- Forecasting bathing water quality in the UK: A critical review K. Krupska et al. 10.1002/wat2.1718
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12864
- Evaluating the Benefits of Flood Warnings in the Management of an Urban Flood-Prone Polder Area F. Duque et al. 10.3390/hydrology10120238
- Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts A. Jones et al. 10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023
- FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts B. Maybee et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024
- Preface: Advances in pluvial and fluvial flood forecasting and assessment and flood risk management C. Prieto et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3381-2024
- Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review M. Brunner et al. 10.1002/wat2.1520
- Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models L. Slater et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12691
- Editorial: The shadowlands of (geo)science communication in academia – definitions, problems, and possible solutions S. Gani et al. 10.5194/gc-7-251-2024
- OpenForecast v2: Development and Benchmarking of the First National-Scale Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia G. Ayzel 10.3390/hydrology8010003
- Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India U. Vegad & V. Mishra 10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12895
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight 10.1098/rsta.2024.0293
- Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations H. Hooker et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023
- Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response R. Emerton et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
- A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis framework demonstrating the advantages of probabilistic forecasting over deterministic forecasting in terms of flood warning reliability L. Duque et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129340
- Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting L. Speight et al. 10.1002/wat2.1517
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12880
- Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda M. Assoumpta & D. Aja 10.2166/h2oj.2021.094
- Forecasting bathing water quality in the UK: A critical review K. Krupska et al. 10.1002/wat2.1718
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12864
- Evaluating the Benefits of Flood Warnings in the Management of an Urban Flood-Prone Polder Area F. Duque et al. 10.3390/hydrology10120238
- Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts A. Jones et al. 10.5194/acp-23-12477-2023
- FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts B. Maybee et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024
- Preface: Advances in pluvial and fluvial flood forecasting and assessment and flood risk management C. Prieto et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3381-2024
- Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review M. Brunner et al. 10.1002/wat2.1520
- Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models L. Slater et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12691
- Editorial: The shadowlands of (geo)science communication in academia – definitions, problems, and possible solutions S. Gani et al. 10.5194/gc-7-251-2024
- OpenForecast v2: Development and Benchmarking of the First National-Scale Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia G. Ayzel 10.3390/hydrology8010003
- Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India U. Vegad & V. Mishra 10.5194/hess-26-6361-2022
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al. 10.1111/jfr3.12895
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight 10.1098/rsta.2024.0293
- Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations H. Hooker et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response R. Emerton et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101811
- A Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis framework demonstrating the advantages of probabilistic forecasting over deterministic forecasting in terms of flood warning reliability L. Duque et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129340
- Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting L. Speight et al. 10.1002/wat2.1517
Latest update: 22 Oct 2025
Short summary
The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards the use of probabilistic river flood forecasts. By showing the likelihood of future floods, they can allow earlier anticipation. But making decisions on probabilistic information is complex and interviews with EA decision-makers highlight the practical challenges and opportunities of this transition. We make recommendations to support a successful transition for flood early warning in England.
The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards...
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