Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 19 Aug 2020
| 19 Aug 2020
“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
now at: Coldwater Laboratory, University of Saskatchewan, Canmore, Alberta, Canada
Liz Anspoks
Incident Management and Resilience, Environment Agency, Warrington, UK
Susan Manson
Flood and Coastal Risk Management Research, Environment Agency, Beverley, UK
Jessica Neumann
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Tim Norton
Incident Management and Resilience, Environment Agency, Addington, UK
Elisabeth Stephens
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Louise Wolfenden
Incident Management and Resilience, Environment Agency, Bristol, UK
Hannah Louise Cloke
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden
Viewed
Total article views: 5,041 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 09 Sep 2019)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,779 | 1,086 | 176 | 5,041 | 439 | 179 | 238 |
- HTML: 3,779
- PDF: 1,086
- XML: 176
- Total: 5,041
- Supplement: 439
- BibTeX: 179
- EndNote: 238
Total article views: 3,880 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 19 Aug 2020)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,125 | 642 | 113 | 3,880 | 198 | 114 | 179 |
- HTML: 3,125
- PDF: 642
- XML: 113
- Total: 3,880
- Supplement: 198
- BibTeX: 114
- EndNote: 179
Total article views: 1,161 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 09 Sep 2019)
| HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 654 | 444 | 63 | 1,161 | 241 | 65 | 59 |
- HTML: 654
- PDF: 444
- XML: 63
- Total: 1,161
- Supplement: 241
- BibTeX: 65
- EndNote: 59
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 5,041 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 4,491 with geography defined
and 550 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 3,880 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 3,473 with geography defined
and 407 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,161 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 1,018 with geography defined
and 143 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al.
- Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda M. Assoumpta & D. Aja
- Forecasting bathing water quality in the UK: A critical review K. Krupska et al.
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al.
- Evaluating the Benefits of Flood Warnings in the Management of an Urban Flood-Prone Polder Area F. Duque et al.
- Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts A. Jones et al.
- Comparing flood forecasting and early warning systems in northwestern Europe T. Busker et al.
- FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts B. Maybee et al.
- Preface: Advances in pluvial and fluvial flood forecasting and assessment and flood risk management C. Prieto et al.
- Signals without action: a value chain analysis of Luxembourg's 2021 flood disaster J. Da Costa et al.
- Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review M. Brunner et al.
- Effective science communication in the face of water crises: a community perspective on challenges and best practice in HELPING C. Orieschnig et al.
- Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models L. Slater et al.
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al.
- Editorial: The shadowlands of (geo)science communication in academia – definitions, problems, and possible solutions S. Gani et al.
- OpenForecast v2: Development and Benchmarking of the First National-Scale Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia G. Ayzel
- Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India U. Vegad & V. Mishra
- Impact-Based Decision Making in Flood Risk Management: A Review of Behavioral and Technical Approaches Z. Bovermann et al.
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al.
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight
- Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations H. Hooker et al.
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop A. Dasgupta et al.
- Flood forecasting using quantitative precipitation forecasts and hydrological modeling in the Sebeya catchment, Rwanda M. Assoumpta & D. Aja
- Forecasting bathing water quality in the UK: A critical review K. Krupska et al.
- A national flood awareness system for ungauged catchments in complex topography: The case of development, communication and evaluation in New Zealand C. Cattoën et al.
- Evaluating the Benefits of Flood Warnings in the Management of an Urban Flood-Prone Polder Area F. Duque et al.
- Using synthetic case studies to explore the spread and calibration of ensemble atmospheric dispersion forecasts A. Jones et al.
- Comparing flood forecasting and early warning systems in northwestern Europe T. Busker et al.
- FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts B. Maybee et al.
- Preface: Advances in pluvial and fluvial flood forecasting and assessment and flood risk management C. Prieto et al.
- Signals without action: a value chain analysis of Luxembourg's 2021 flood disaster J. Da Costa et al.
- Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review M. Brunner et al.
- Effective science communication in the face of water crises: a community perspective on challenges and best practice in HELPING C. Orieschnig et al.
- Hybrid forecasting: blending climate predictions with AI models L. Slater et al.
- Enhanced surface water flood forecasts: User‐led development and testing C. Birch et al.
- Editorial: The shadowlands of (geo)science communication in academia – definitions, problems, and possible solutions S. Gani et al.
- OpenForecast v2: Development and Benchmarking of the First National-Scale Operational Runoff Forecasting System in Russia G. Ayzel
- Ensemble streamflow prediction considering the influence of reservoirs in Narmada River Basin, India U. Vegad & V. Mishra
- Impact-Based Decision Making in Flood Risk Management: A Review of Behavioral and Technical Approaches Z. Bovermann et al.
- Towards a coherent flood forecasting framework for Canada: Local to global implications L. Arnal et al.
- Why people matter in 21st century hydrology: lessons learnt from flood forecasting and warning L. Speight
- Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations H. Hooker et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
Short summary
The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards the use of probabilistic river flood forecasts. By showing the likelihood of future floods, they can allow earlier anticipation. But making decisions on probabilistic information is complex and interviews with EA decision-makers highlight the practical challenges and opportunities of this transition. We make recommendations to support a successful transition for flood early warning in England.
The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint