Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, 2020
Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, 2020

Research article 19 Aug 2020

Research article | 19 Aug 2020

“Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England

Louise Arnal et al.


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (01 Jan 2020) by Jon Tennant
AR by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner on behalf of the Authors (22 Apr 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 May 2020) by Sam Illingworth
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (28 Jun 2020)
RR by Martin Bohle (07 Jul 2020)
ED: Publish as is (08 Jul 2020) by Sam Illingworth
ED: Publish as is (08 Jul 2020) by Iain Stewart(Executive Editor)
Short summary
The Environment Agency (EA), responsible for flood risk management in England, is moving towards the use of probabilistic river flood forecasts. By showing the likelihood of future floods, they can allow earlier anticipation. But making decisions on probabilistic information is complex and interviews with EA decision-makers highlight the practical challenges and opportunities of this transition. We make recommendations to support a successful transition for flood early warning in England.
Final-revised paper