Articles | Volume 4, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Aug 2021
Research article |
| 17 Aug 2021
| 17 Aug 2021
Breaking the Silos: an online serious game for multi-risk disaster risk reduction (DRR) management
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
Amsterdam, 1081HV, the Netherlands
Anaïs Couasnon
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
Amsterdam, 1081HV, the Netherlands
Philip James Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
Amsterdam, 1081HV, the Netherlands
Since publishing this paper, we have created an online version of the game that is fully open access. All required resources and instructions can be found here: https://zenodo.org/record/5879891#.YekXeS2ZOCN. The game does not need to be installed on your hard drive, and no browser plugins need to be installed. If you are interested in playing the game, we recommend reading the game instructions hand in hand with the paper.
We hope you enjoy this game, and feel free to reach out in case of questions. We would really like to hear your feedback and experiences.
Anaïs Couasnon and Marleen de Ruiter
Related authors
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings, and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We're not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We studied what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed buildings and their flood impact. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, this model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes. This approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as developing countries and large scales, and enables vulnerability comparison across different natural disasters.
Marleen C. de Ruiter, Philip J. Ward, James E. Daniell, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides cross-discipline lessons for earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment methods by comparing indicators used in both fields. It appears that there is potential for improvement of these methods that can be obtained for both earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment indicators. This increased understanding is beneficial for both scientists as well as practitioners working with earthquake and/or flood vulnerability assessment methods.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-208, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CI) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. The vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in literature. Our study reviews over 1,250 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can directly be used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms and landslides.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings, and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We're not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We studied what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-284, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g., sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanisation; action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on the global scale to estimate what level of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3199-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare and analyse flood hazard maps from eight global flood models that represent the current state of the global flood modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study, and for the first time, we include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood protection standards. We find substantial variability between the flood hazard maps in the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods and in expected annual exposed GDP.
Jens A. de Bruijn, James E. Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Rashmin Gunasekera, Joshua Macabuag, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Siem Jan Koopman, Nadia Bloemendaal, Hans de Moel, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-282, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Following hurricanes and other natural hazards, it is important to quickly estimate the damage caused by the hazard such that recovery aid can be granted from organizations such as the European Union and the World Bank. To do so, it is important to estimate the vulnerability of buildings to the hazards. In this research, we use post-disaster observations from social media to improve these vulnerability assessments and show its application in the Bahamas following Hurricane Dorian.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1025-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Sanne Muis, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Ivan D. Haigh, Thomas Wahl, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
When a high river discharge coincides with a high storm surge level, this can exarcebate flood level, depth, and duration, resulting in a so-called compound flood event. These events are not currently included in global flood models. In this research, we analyse the timing and correlation between modelled discharge and storm surge level time series in deltas and estuaries. Our results provide a first indication of regions along the global coastline with a high compound flooding potential.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1703–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1703-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed buildings and their flood impact. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, this model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes. This approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as developing countries and large scales, and enables vulnerability comparison across different natural disasters.
Shiqiang Du, Xiaotao Cheng, Qingxu Huang, Ruishan Chen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 715–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A mega-flood in 1998 caused tremendous losses in China and triggered major policy adjustments in flood-risk management. This paper rethinks these policy adjustments and discusses how China should adapt to newly emerging flood challenges. We suggest that China needs novel flood-risk management approaches to address the new challenges from rapid urbanization and climate change. These include risk-based urban planning and a coordinated water governance system.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Anouk I. Gevaert, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4649–4665, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4649-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a natural hazard that has severe environmental and socioeconomic impacts around the globe. Here, we quantified the time taken for drought to propagate from precipitation droughts to soil moisture and streamflow droughts. Results show that propagation timescales are strongly related to climate type, with fast responses in tropical regions and slow responses in arid regions. Insight into the timescales of drought propagation globally may help improve seasonal drought forecasting.
Marleen C. de Ruiter, Philip J. Ward, James E. Daniell, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides cross-discipline lessons for earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment methods by comparing indicators used in both fields. It appears that there is potential for improvement of these methods that can be obtained for both earthquake and flood vulnerability assessment indicators. This increased understanding is beneficial for both scientists as well as practitioners working with earthquake and/or flood vulnerability assessment methods.
Paolo Scussolini, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Brenden Jongman, Laurens M. Bouwer, Hessel C. Winsemius, Hans de Moel, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Assessments of flood risk, on global to local scales, are becoming more urgent with ongoing climate change and with rapid socioeconomic developments. Such assessments need information about existing flood protection, still largely unavailable. Here we present the first open-source database of FLood PROtection Standards, FLOPROS, which enables more accurate modelling of flood risk. We also invite specialists to contribute new information to this evolving database.
Yus Budiyono, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Daniel Tollenaar, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 757–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes a model framework for assessing flood risk in Jakarta under current and future scenarios (2030 and 2050) including climate change, sea level rise, land use change, and land subsidence. The results shows individual impact of future changes and serve as a basis to evaluate adaptation strategies in cities. They also show while the impacts of climate change alone on flood risk in Jakarta are highly uncertain, the combined impacts of all drivers reveal a strong increase in risk.
D. Lee, P. Ward, and P. Block
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4689–4705, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a global approach to defining high-flow seasons by identifying temporal patterns of streamflow. Simulations of streamflow from the PCR-GLOBWB model are evaluated to define dominant and minor high-flow seasons globally, and verified with GRDC observations and flood records from Dartmouth Flood Observatory.
T. I. E. Veldkamp, S. Eisner, Y. Wada, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4081–4098, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4081-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks, partially driven by climate variability. Here we present a first global scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity events to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the most dominant climate variability signal. Given the found correlations, covering a large share of the global land area, and seen the developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we show that there is large potential for ENSO-based risk reduction.
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
B. Jongman, E. E. Koks, T. G. Husby, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1245–1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1245-2014, 2014
P. J. Ward, S. Eisner, M. Flörke, M. D. Dettinger, and M. Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 47–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-47-2014, 2014
H. C. Winsemius, L. P. H. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, and A. Bouwman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1871–1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, 2013
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Geoscience education | Keyword: Risk communication
The imaginary eruption – volcanic activity through kids' eyes
Teaching climate risk for water planning: a pilot training for tertiary students and practitioners in Brazil
Impact of an educational program on earthquake awareness and preparedness in Nepal
Interdisciplinary pressure cooker: environmental risk communication skills for the next generation
Micol Todesco, Emanuela Ercolani, Flaminia Brasini, Delia Modonesi, Vera Pessina, Rosella Nave, and Romano Camassi
Geosci. Commun., 5, 205–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-205-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-5-205-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
How do kids imagine the onset and outcome of a volcanic eruption? A workshop proposed for schools tries to answer this question by collecting stories and drawings done by kids (aged 6–13). The eruption they have in mind is an excellent starting point for building classroom conversations about volcanic risk and its mitigation. Concurrently, the workshop provided us with valuable hints to improve educational materials and lesson plans to account for kids’ knowledge and beliefs.
Pablo Borges de Amorim and Pedro Luiz Borges Chaffe
Geosci. Commun., 4, 527–554, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is one of the major challenges of our society, and therefore we present a climate risk training for tertiary students and practitioners. The training uses a hands-on method and was tested with five independent groups in Brazil. We find that the application of a mapping exercise supports learning about climate risk, as well as the development of problem-solving skills. The proposed training enables the teaching of climate risk in stand-alone courses and professional development.
Shiba Subedi, György Hetényi, and Ross Shackleton
Geosci. Commun., 3, 279–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-279-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-279-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We study the impact of an educational seismology program on earthquake awareness and preparedness in Nepal. We see that educational activities implemented in schools are effective at raising awareness levels and in improving adaptive capacities and preparedness for future earthquakes. Knowledge also reached the broader community though social learning, leading to broadscale awareness. The result observed in this study is encouraging for the continuation and expansion of the program.
Lydia Cumiskey, Matthew Lickiss, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, and Javed Ali
Geosci. Commun., 2, 173–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-173-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-173-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a unique capacity-building event (the pressure cooker) which identified lessons for both organisers and participants about interdisciplinary working in geohazard risk communication. The paper highlights the importance of testing different approaches to build capacity across different disciplines for complex challenges, like risk communication. Examples are provided about the impact the event had on participants, organisers and supporters in both the short and long term.
Cited articles
AghaKouchak, A., Chiang, F., Huning, L. S., Love, C. A., Mallakpour, I.,
Mazdiyasni, O., Moftakhari, H., Papalexiou, S. M., Ragno, E., and Sadegh, M.:
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World, Annu. Rev. Earth
Planet. Sci., 48, 519–548, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-055228, 2020.
Arnal, L., Ramos, M.-H., Coughlan de Perez, E., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., van Andel, S. J., and Pappenberger, F.: Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016, 2016.
Cardona, O.: Indicators of disaster risk and risk management: Summary
report, Inter-American Development Bank, Instituto de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad Nacional de Columbia, Manizales, Columbia, 2005.
Ciurean, R., Gill, J. C., Reeves, H., O’Grady, S. K., Donald, K., and Aldridge, T.: Review of multi-hazards research and risk assessments, British Geological Survey Engineering Geology & Infrastructure Programme, Open Report OR/18/057, British Geological Survey, Nottingham, UK, 2018.
Cremers, A., Stubbé, H., van der Beek, D., Roelofs, M., and Kerstholt,
J.: Does playing the serious game B-SaFe! make citizens more aware of
man-made and natural risks in their environment?, J. Risk Res., 18,
1280–1292, 2015.
Crookall, D.: Serious games, debriefing, and simulation/gaming as a
discipline, Simul. Gaming, 41, 898–920, 2010.
Cutter, S. L.: Compound, cascading, or complex disasters: what's in a name?,
Environ. Sci. Policy Sustain. Dev., 60, 16–25, 2018.
Cutter, S. L., Ismail-Zadeh, A., Alcántara-Ayala, I., Altan, O., Baker,
D. N., Briceño, S., Gupta, H., Holloway, A., Johnston, D., McBean, G.
A., Ogawa, Y., Paton, D., Porio, E., Silbereisen, R. K., Takeuchi, K.,
Valsecchi, G. B., Vogel, C., and Wu, G.: Global risks: Pool knowledge to stem
losses from disasters, Nature, 522, 277–279, https://doi.org/10.1038/522277a,
2015.
de Ruiter, M. C., Ward, P. J., Daniell, J. E., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1231–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1231-2017, 2017.
de Ruiter, M. C., Couasnon, A., van den Homberg, M. J. C., Daniell, J. E.,
Gill, J. C., and Ward, P. J.: Why we can no longer ignore consecutive
disasters, Earth's Futur., 8, e2019EF001425, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001425, 2020.
de Ruiter, M. C., De Bruijn, J. A., Englhardt, J., Daniell, J. E., de Moel,
H., and Ward, P. J.: The Asynergies of Structural Disaster Risk Reduction
Measures: Comparing Floods and Earthquakes, Earth's Futur., 9,
e2020EF001531, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001531, 2021.
Fraser, S., Raby, A., Pomonis, A., Goda, K., Chian, S. C., Macabuag, J.,
Offord, M., Saito, K., and Sammonds, P.: Tsunami damage to coastal defences
and buildings in the March 11th 2011 Mw 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and
tsunami, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 11, 205–239, 2013.
Gampell, A., Gaillard, J. C., Parsons, M., and Le Dé, L.: “Serious”
Disaster Video Games: An Innovative Approach to Teaching and Learning about
Disasters and Disaster Risk Reduction, J. Geog., 119, 159–170, 2020.
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions
of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52, 680–722,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445, 2014.
Kolb, D. A., Boyatzis, R. E., and Mainemelis, C.: Experiential learning
theory: Previous research and new directions, in: Perspectives on thinking,
learning, and cognitive styles, Routledge, New York, USA, 227–248, 2014.
Mani, L., Cole, P. D., and Stewart, I.: Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1673–1689, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016, 2016.
Modgil, S., Singh, R. K., and Foropon, C.: Quality management in humanitarian
operations and disaster relief management: a review and future research
directions, Ann. Oper. Res., https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03695-5, online first, 2020.
Mojtahedi, M. and Oo, B. L.: Critical attributes for proactive engagement of
stakeholders in disaster risk management, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 21,
35–43, 2017.
Mossoux, S., Delcamp, A., Poppe, S., Michellier, C., Canters, F., and Kervyn, M.: Hazagora: will you survive the next disaster? – A serious game to raise awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 135–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-135-2016, 2016.
Pereira, G., Prada, R., and Paiva, A.: Disaster prevention social awareness:
The stop disasters! case study, in: 2014 6th International Conference on
Games and Virtual Worlds for Serious Applications (VS-GAMES), 9–12 September 2014, Valletta, Malta, IEEE, 1–8, 2014.
Rumore, D., Schenk, T., and Susskind, L.: Role-play simulations for climate
change adaptation education and engagement, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6,
745–750, 2016.
Scolobig, A., Komendantova, N., and Mignan, A.: Mainstreaming Multi-Risk
Approaches into Policy, Geosciences, 7, 129, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences7040129, 2017.
Solinska-Nowak, A., Magnuszewski, P., Curl, M., French, A., Keating, A.,
Mochizuki, J., Liu, W., Mechler, R., Kulakowska, M., and Jarzabek, L.: An
overview of serious games for disaster risk management – Prospects and
limitations for informing actions to arrest increasing risk, Int. J.
Disaster Risk Reduct., 31, 1013–1029, 2018.
Taillandier, F. and Adam, C.: Games ready to use: A serious game for
teaching natural risk management, Simul. Gaming, 49, 441–470, 2018.
Terti, G., Ruin, I., Kalas, M., Láng, I., Cangròs i Alonso, A., Sabbatini, T., and Lorini, V.: ANYCaRE: a role-playing game to investigate crisis decision-making and communication challenges in weather-related hazards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 507–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-507-2019, 2019.
Tsai, M.-H., Chang, Y.-L., Shiau, J.-S., and Wang, S.-M.: Exploring the
effects of a serious game-based learning package for disaster prevention
education: The case of Battle of Flooding Protection, Int. J. Disaster Risk
Reduct., 43, 101393, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101393, 2020.
UNDRR: Stop Disasters!, available at:
http://www.gamesforchange.org/play/stop-disasters/ (last access: 12 February 2021), 2004.
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, available at:
http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/home/GAR_2015/GAR_2015_5.html (last access: 12 February 2021), 2015a.
UNDRR: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, available at: https://www.unisdr.org/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf (last access: 12 February 2021), 2015b.
UNDRR: Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on
indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction, available at:
http://www.preventionweb.net/drr-framework/open-ended-working-group/
(last access: 12 February 2021), 2016.
UNDRR: Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction Proceedings, Geneva, available at: https://www.unisdr.org/files/66637_proceedingsen.pdf, last access: 12 September 2019.
Wallemacq, P. and House, R.: Economic losses, poverty & disasters:
1998–2017, Geneva, available at: http://www.unisdr.org, last access: 16 October 2018.
Ward, P. J., de Ruiter, M. C., Mård, J., Schröter, K., Van Loon, A.,
Veldkamp, T., von Uexkull, N., Wanders, N., AghaKouchak, A., and
Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.: The need to integrate flood and drought disaster risk
reduction strategies, Water Secur., 11, 100070, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100070, 2020.
Download
Please read the editorial note first before accessing the article.
- Article
(6264 KB) - Full-text XML
-
Supplement
(911 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
Short summary
Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally, measures and policies are aimed at decreasing the potential damages of one particular hazard type despite their potential of having unwanted effects on other hazard types. We designed a serious game that helps professionals to improve their understanding of these potential negative effects of measures and policies that reduce the impacts of disasters across many different hazard types.
Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint